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Prediction for CME (2023-10-02T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-02T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27173/-1
CME Note: Extremely faint CME with uneven front seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A. Source is very uncertain but one low confidence candidate is an area of very subtle dimming seen at 2023-10-02T16:54Z in SDO AIA & GOES SUVI 195 spanning from about N05E22 to N05E00(AR 13453) down to S10E00. Centered at about S05E10. This dimming is possibly associated with a C-class flare and small eruption from AR 13450 (S10E07) seen starting at 2023-10-02T15:54Z. A possible weak arrival starts around 2023-10-05T21:25Z and is characterized by rapid increase in wind speed from 430 to 490 km/s, some gradual increase in magnetic field strength from 5 to 9 nT, density increase from 3 to 14 particles/cc, and relatively small decrease in temperature. Field rotations follow around 2023-10-0617:00Z; there is a small increase in GOES >1 MeV channel at the same time that seems to support a CME arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-05T21:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-07T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME Event ID: 
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s): 
Longitude (deg): 
Latitude (deg): 
Half-angular width (deg): 

Notes: Based on the single-CME simulation available on NOAA/SWPC homepage issued 2023-10-04T09:10Z combined with G1 Watch issued at 2023-10-05T17:48Z and below 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast issued 2023-10-05T12:30Z:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Oct 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Solar Wind
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain slightly enhanced through 07 Oct due to residual CH HSS influence, with possible transient
influence mixed in. An additional enhancement, primarily from the 02 Oct
CME, is anticipated to arrive by early 07 Oct. Any lingering disturbance
in the solar wind environment would likely continue into 8 Oct.

~~~

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Oct 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
...
The easterly CME from 02 Oct that was first seen in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery around 1824 UTC was determined to have possibly been from
dimming that was observed near AR 3450 in GOES-16 195 Angstroms at
approximately 02/1704 UTC. This CME presents a fairly odd profile,
deflecting eastward, given the suspected source location was relatively
close to meridian and therefore confidence is low. WSA-Enlil returned
this event with a bulk of the material missing behind Earth's orbit on
the 7th while delivering a weak glancing blow. Next, there was
northeasterly CME (misstated as northwesterly in the previous
discussion) first observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 03/1236
UTC. This event was determined to have originated beyond the eastern
limb. However, as it faster than the aforementioned 02 Oct event, some
interaction between the two can not be ruled out with this faster CME
speeding along the arrival of the 02 Oct event some what sooner.
Although, confidence is low in that outcome.

~~~

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Oct 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2023

             Oct 05       Oct 06       Oct 07
00-03UT       4.33         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         3.67     
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         2.00     
09-12UT       3.67         1.67         2.33     
12-15UT       3.00         1.67         3.00     
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         3.67     
18-21UT       3.00         3.67         3.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         3.00     

Rationale:  There is a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period
on 07 Oct with weak, glancing effects from the 02 Sep CME event.
 02 Sep CME event.
Lead Time: 36.25 hour(s)
Difference: -27.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2023-10-04T09:10Z
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